Davidson Realty, Inc.

North Florida Real Estate Trends – Housing Inventory Approaching Normal Market Equilibrium?

November 28, 2011

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Before you can learn a new way of doing things, you have to unlearn the old way. So beginnings depend on endings.”– Rick Maurer

Everything has changed over the past few years and we have to learn to adapt. Some things haven’t changed though so when we see declining inventory and improved sales, you might well expect an improvement in the future housing market, especially if we can continue adding jobs in the northeast Florida area. I know the job growth has been slow but our area has started to see growth.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics for October, 2011 continue to show encouraging trends in the market. The pending sales are up 37.5% over October, 2010. The 12 month average for the most recent 12 months is 1,463 pending sales per month compared to 1,357 for the previous 12 months which is an increase of almost 8%.

The inventory of homes for sale in October, 2011 was 10,964 down 31.5% from 15,995 in October, 2010. The inventory has dropped consistently for the last 12 months. The largest drop in inventory is in the less than $150,000 price range at 36.5% however the $500,000 to $999,999 price range also dropped 28.5%. Of particular interest is that over the last year the price range hardest hit in our area ($500,000 – $999,999) has seen the strongest increase in sales with a 30.6% increase.

Closings in October 2011 were up 6.2% over October 2010; however, year to date closings for 2011 are only up 1.7% over 2010. Closings were down in October from the previous few months, but a similar drop in closings happened in October 2010. With stronger pending sales and fewer transactions falling through, the closings should improve.

I still believe pricing in our market is stabilizing. The median sales price year to date in 2011 is down 6% from the year to date price in 2010. The median price improved slightly to $127,800 in October from $124,000 in September. The average median price for the last 12 months is $129,000.

The average price in October 2011 is down 3.5% from October 2010. The 12 month average price for the most recent 12 months is $170,804 compared to $169,103 for the previous 12 months which is a 1% increase.

The final two stats I will mention are the months supply of inventory is at 7.7 months in October 2011 compared to 11.6 months in October 2010. It is also down from 8.2 months in September 2011. A normal market is 5 to 6 months of inventory. The share of closings in October 2011 that were lender mediated is at 45.7% which is down from the peak of 60% in January 2011.

Our business is built on referrals and I would truly appreciate any referral of someone you know that needs to buy or sell real estate. I wish you Happy Holidays and new beginnings in 2012.

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About the Author
Sherry Davidson
President of Davidson Realty

Since launching Davidson Realty in 1989, Sherry Davidson has built the firm to include nearly 60 agents and exceed $100 million in annual sales. She is known throughout the First Coast as an authority on all things residential real estate, having served on the Board of Directors for Northeast Florida Association of Realtors, Florida Realtors® (a division of the National Association of Realtors), and Builders Care (charitable arm of Northeast Florida Builders Association).

Thanks to Sherry’s leadership, Davidson Realty has been recognized as one of the state’s Best Companies to Work For (Florida Trend Magazine), as well as one of the region's Best Places to Work and 50 Fastest Growing Companies (Jacksonville Business Journal). Get to know Davidson Realty’s talented team of agents by clicking here or call us at (904) 940-5000.

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