Davidson Realty, Inc.

Trends Show Improvement in the Real Estate Market for April 2012

May 29, 2012

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“I learned that if you want to make it bad enough, no matter how bad it is, you can make it.” Gale Sayers

It has been a very long 5 years for all of us but we can all get inspiration from Chicago Bears running back Gale Sayers. I believe our perseverance is paying off as we experience continued good signs for our real estate market.

I recently attended a speech given by Dr. John Tuccillo. He was the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors for many years and is now in the same position with the Florida Realtors.  Dr. Tuccillo’s opinion is that when we see the following three trends in unison we can rely on improvement in the real estate market:

1. A decline in the number of new listings
2. A decline in the time a listing stays on the market
3. An increase in the ratio of selling price to listing price

The April 2012 Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats show that our local market is seeing these trends in all three areas. First, the year to date current new listings of 9,534 were down 5% from the 10,053 in 2011 and 24% from the 13,272 in 2010. Second, the days a listing stays on the market until sale is down 6% in April 2012 at 115 days verses April 2011 123 days. Third, the percent of original list price received increased almost 4% from April 2011. We received on average 90.2% of original list price in April 2012 verses 87.1% in April 2011.

Pending sales (the contracts written) continue to increase. April 2012 is 36% more than April 2011 and year to date pending sales are up 19% over 2011. Dr. Tuccillo shared that historically 9-12% of pending sales do not close; unfortunately, in the current market approximately 30% do not close. I believe there are a number of factors causing this increase including below market appraisals, increased credit score requirements by the banks and the continued difficulty of the short sale process.

The closings in April 2012 are down 11% from April 2011 but annual closings over the past 2 years are almost identical. The median sales price and the average sales price are both showing improvements. In April 2012, the median sales price is $137,750 which is 10% higher than April 2011 and 3% higher year to date over the previous year to date. The average sales price of $184,246 is 10% higher than last April and 4% higher year to date.

The inventory of homes for sale is now at 9,745 properties. This number is down 30% from the previous April. The months supply of inventory is down 38% from the previous year to 6.4 months of inventory.  The lender-mediated percent of closed sales for April 2012 dropped to 38.1%. This is the lowest percentage of distressed closings we have seen in almost 2 years. All of the trends continue to look positive for our local real estate market; however, be cautioned as this is a very fragile recovery.

Davidson Property Management is growing and Shelby Heinemann is our new Property Manager. If we can assist you in any way or just answer a question, please call Shelby or me. We look forward to serving you.

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About the Author
Sherry Davidson
President of Davidson Realty

Since launching Davidson Realty in 1989, Sherry Davidson has built the firm to include nearly 60 agents and exceed $100 million in annual sales. She is known throughout the First Coast as an authority on all things residential real estate, having served on the Board of Directors for Northeast Florida Association of Realtors, Florida Realtors® (a division of the National Association of Realtors), and Builders Care (charitable arm of Northeast Florida Builders Association).

Thanks to Sherry’s leadership, Davidson Realty has been recognized as one of the state’s Best Companies to Work For (Florida Trend Magazine), as well as one of the region's Best Places to Work and 50 Fastest Growing Companies (Jacksonville Business Journal). Get to know Davidson Realty’s talented team of agents by clicking here or call us at (904) 940-5000.

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