Davidson Realty, Inc.

Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

January 26, 2022

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“I always just thought if you see somebody without a smile, give ‘em yours!” Dolly Parton

 

 

A little Dolly wisdom to get 2022 off to a great start.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors Market Stats shows strong buyer demand, a very low supply of homes available, and prices continuing to rise. The buyer demand is particularly strong as mortgage interest rates have risen slightly and buyers want to lock in lower mortgage rates. The higher interest rates expected will decrease affordability for some buyers going forward.

 

Some great information shared by Bank of England loan officer Alex Stewart at the Sales & Marketing Council last week included some Redfin user search data showing 52% of buyers searching Jacksonville properties were local and 48% were from outside the area. The locals don’t have the perspective of buyers moving here from much more expensive areas.

 

The average price home in Jacksonville is around $358,000 for a 2,500 square foot home. A similar home in Washington DC is approximately $676,000, in New York $3 million and Seattle $807,000. These buyers relocating to our area find the homes very affordable.

 

Job growth is also adding to the demand for homes. The Jacksonville market has recovered more jobs than we lost when COVID caused so much unemployment. As of October 2021, Jacksonville has recovered 112% of jobs compared to the United States recovering 81%.

 

The supply of homes was around 20,000 homes in Northeast Florida in 2007 when the housing market changed. As the market improved, it dropped 52% to around 9,500 homes at the beginning of 2020. In the last 2 years, the supply has dropped an additional 62% to around 3,400 homes available in December 2021. There is a 1.1 month supply of homes available in December way below the 5 to 6 months supply that is considered a balanced market.

 

The median sales price in the Northeast Florida area in December is $323,880 for all property types in all 6 counties. That is an increase of 20.5% over last December. Most sellers got their asking price with 29.1% closing over list price.

 

The Northeast Florida real estate market is very strong. If you are interested in buying, selling, or renting your property, please give us a call for a consultation. Thank you so much for all of your support and referrals in 2021. Happy New Year!

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Real Estate Market Update

September 22, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Fear does not stop death. It stops life. And worrying does not take away tomorrow’s troubles. It takes away today’s peace.” Unknown

It is easy to agree with the truth of this quote, but much harder to live it.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for August continue to show rising prices, continued high buyer demand, and low inventories of available homes. The most recent trend we are seeing is double-digit rent increases.

 

“Put simply, August trends suggest rents are making up for lost time. Rents remained low during some of the worst months of the pandemic, growing at a sub-2% pace from September 2020 to March 2021, which is also when for-sale home prices were growing by double-digits,” said Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.

 

Many buyers are unable to find a suitable home to purchase and have been forced into the rental market. According to Apartment List, rents in Jacksonville have risen 19.7% since August 2020, and 4.4% since July 2021.

 

There were 3,787 new listings in August, up 5.7% from last August and 6.7% year-to-date. The builders are also adding more homes. Industry sources predict an 11% to 12% increase in housing starts for 2021 or about 1.55 million units. That would be up from 1.38 million housing starts in 2020, which was a 7% increase over 2019. (Business Journal article) Builders are still being delayed by materials like windows and appliances and labor shortages.

 

The good news for buyers is that the frenzy of competitiveness of the spring market has cooled a bit. Some sellers are still pricing their homes very high, but many buyers are no longer willing to pay the prices they were during the spring and the homes are sitting or the sellers are reducing the price. While 41.0% of homes sold over list price, that is down from 44.8% in July.

 

There were 3,424 pending sales down 2.0% from last August, but up 12.4% year-to-date. Closed sales of 3,200 were down 3.1% from last August, but up 15.6% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price of $300,000 is up around 14% month-over-month and year-to-date. The average sales price of $362,699 is up 14.2% month-over-month and 17.7% year-to-date.

 

There are 4,651 homes available for sale which is down 37.2% from last August and we have 1.4 months of supply available. Five to six months is a balanced market.

 

While we are seeing more homes come available, the buyer demand remains very strong. We should continue to see prices increase, multiple offers, and increased rental rates.

 

Please come join us on October 21st for our major fundraiser, Davidson Cares Clay Day. We support Builders Care, St. Augustine Youth Services, and Investing in Kids. Go to DavidsonCares.com and register or buy a raffle ticket for one of our great prizes.

 

We appreciate your support and referrals. Please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

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Real Estate Market Update

August 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Your reputation is what people say about you. Your character is what God knows about you.” Bobby Bowden

 

Whether an FSU fan or not, most people respect and love Bobby Bowden.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July have a few interesting twists. Prices continue to rise, pending and closed sales are down compared to July 2020, and new listings are up.

 

New listings of 3,915 are up 6.9% month over month and 5.3% year to date. The inventory of homes for sale of 4,668 is up slightly from the June number of 4,586. It is still down 40.6% from last July. The months supply of inventory is at 1.4 months which is the same as June but down 50% from last July. Since 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is a balanced market, we are still in a seller’s market.

 

There were 3,287 pending sales in July down 10.6% from last July. However, pending sales are up 13.4% year-to-date. There were 3,149 closings in July down 16.2% from last July but we are up 16.7% year-to-date. The month-to-month comparisons are difficult to interpret because last June and July were the two highest months for sales last year and July was the highest month for closings as a result of the slowdown in April and May 2020 due to Covid.

 

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun is predicting interest rates to increase to 3.3% by the end of the year on 30-year fixed rate mortgages and average 3.6% in 2022. He predicts existing-home sales will decline marginally from 6 million in 2021 to 5.99 million in 2022.

 

Dr. Yun also predicts housing starts will improve to 1.65 million in 2022 from 1.565 in 2021 and existing-home prices will increase at a slower pace of 4.4% in 2022 compared to 14.1% in 2021.

 

The July median sales price is $303,600 up 15% month-over-month and 13.7% year-to-date. The average sales price is $381,499 up 18.4% month-over-month and 18.6% year-to-date. An amazing 45.6% of listings sold for an amount over list price.

 

It does appear the speed of the market is slowing a little and there may be more opportunities for first-time homebuyers and buyers using FHA or VA loans. Sellers were seeing so many cash offers and conventional loans, that many didn’t want to accept government backed loans because of their inflexibility. The market calming down a little will be good for everyone.

 

Please take a minute to go to DavidsonCares.com and sign up for Clay Day on October 21st or buy a ticket to one of our raffles. We have our YETI cooler full of alcoholic beverages and tickets for 8 people at Concerts for a Cause which is an amazing event watching live music outside.

 

Have a great Labor Day holiday and enjoy the rest of your summer. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate questions.

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Real Estate Market Update

May 20, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.” Babe Ruth

 

If you want to buy a home in today’s market, you should listen to Babe Ruth. Most buyers are having to be persistent and make offers on several homes before they get a home under contract.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for April continue to show high demand for homes and limited supply which is causing price increases.

 

There were 3,615 pending sales in April which is up 52% over last April; however last April COVID was a factor in less contracts being written. The year-to-date numbers for pending sales are up 27% so you can see there is increased demand in the four-month period.

 

There were 3,177 closed sales in April which is a 27% increase month-over-month and 20% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price is $284,941 which is up 14% over last month and 12.5% year-to-date. The average sales price is $357,438 which is up 20.5% over last month and 18% year-to-date.

 

The most staggering statistic to me was the percent of properties sold over list price. For the properties that closed in April, 36.9% sold over list price. That is a 142.8% increase over April 2020. The average for the previous 12 months was 13.3% selling over list price.

 

On the supply side, there were 3,991 available homes for sale at the end of April which is down 58% from last April and there are 1.2 months supply of homes for sale. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months.

 

There may be better news coming to help with supply. A survey by Realtor.com indicated more sellers plan to put their homes on the market. Another survey by NerdWallet of 2,127 homeowners shows 1 in 6 (17%) plans on selling their home in the next 18 months. In fact, 45% of those planning to sell say higher asking prices and lower inventory have caused them to sell earlier than initially planned.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate to an average of 3.2% in 2021. “As mortgage rates increase, the frenzied multiple-offer situation will become less prevalent by year’s end, as affordability challenges squeeze out some buyers and more inventory reaches the market,” Yun predicts.

 

“With more inventory and some easing in demand, home prices are expected to shift to mid-single-digit appreciation by the fourth quarter and in 2022,” Yun says. He predicts that:

· Median existing-home sales price will increase 7% in 2021

· Existing-home sales will grow by 10% as more homes reach the market

· New home sales will increase by 20%

 

These predictions are great news. In the meantime, if you are interested in buying or selling, please contact a Realtor with knowledge of the market. We would love to help you navigate these interesting times.

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REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

April 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“God could not be everywhere, and therefore he made mothers.” Rudyard Kipling

 

I wish every mother a Happy Mother’s Day!

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for March shows 3,782 homes available for sale compared to 9,484 last March, a 60% reduction. It appears the low supply of homes for sale, high buyer demand and rising prices will be with us for several years.

 

The single-family home for sale inventory peaked in 2007 with about 3.7 million homes available nationally and has been dropping since then to 1.07 million homes currently.

 

A great article from The Mecklenburg Times cites the reason for continued buyer demand as low household formation rates following the Great Recession. If the historical household formation rate had continued after the recession, there would have been 5.7 million more households formed.

 

“The mid-2000s financial collapse began a domino effect. Roughly $6 trillion in real estate equity vanished during the housing crash, impacting the ability of many families to pass down wealth to their children. Young people who finished school around the late 2000s faced a soft job market, which can have long-lasting effects on a person’s finances and their ability to start a new household. Previous Zillow research has shown it takes about six years for homeownership rates of those who graduated college during a recession to catch up with those who graduated during better economic times.”

 

The last two years had shown that when the economy is good and most Americans have access to decent jobs, more of them are able to find a home of their own. More Millennials are turning 33 which has been the age most are marrying and starting families. This trend should continue rising for the next three to four years. Add to this the retiring Baby Boomers who are downsizing and the COVID-related moves where people can work from anywhere. The demand should continue for several more years at least.

 

The supply is tight and the demand is strong, so prices are rising. The median sales price is $274,900 up 12.7% over last March. The average sales price is $344,643, up 20.4%. Many buyers are offering to pay more than list price to get the offer accepted among multiple offers. The percent of properties sold over list price spiked 102.1%. In March 2020 14.2% of properties sold over list price and in March 2021 28.7% paid over list price.

 

It is a seller’s market, so if you are considering selling, we are happy to assist you. If you are interested in buying, we are finding ways to get offers accepted. Thank you for your continued trust and please let us know if we can help in any way. Happy Mother’s Day!

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