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Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update

December 16, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“God goes to those who have time to hear him—and so on this cloudless night he went to simple shepherds.” Max Lucado

 

 

At this holiday season, the Northeast Florida real estate market is still looking bright. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market statistics show continued price increases and decreasing availability of homes.

 

The median sales price in November 2021 is $325,000 for all property types in all 6 counties. This is a 23.6% increase year over year and 4.8% higher than October 2021. In St. Johns County the median price is $450,000 for a 26.8% increase year over year. All predictions I have seen are for price increases to slow to single-digit increases next year.

 

There are 3,915 properties available in November 2021 which is down 31.4% year over year and down 14.7% from last month. There is 1.3 months supply of inventory which is down 33.9% year over year and 7.2% from last month. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of supply.

 

Of the closings in November, 28.8% closed over list price. This number peaked at 40.6% of properties in July and has been dropping, but there was a slight increase from 28.3% last month.

 

There are many opinions on mortgage interest rates since the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday they will be shrinking their monthly bond purchases at twice the rate previously announced and forecasting to raise interest rates three times next year.

 

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors said, “When inflation rises, lenders ask for higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power. Thus, if inflation remains elevated for a longer period, that will drive up mortgage rates.” She expects rates to rise to 3.5% next year. I have seen others predict 3.6% to 3.7%.

 

The supply of homes is expected to increase slightly in 2022; however, the demand should remain strong. More than 45 million millennials will be prime homebuying age, between 26 and 35, entering 2022 plus downsizing baby boomers and Generation Z buyers. We will have to see what effect rising mortgage rates has on demand.

 

For now, inventory remains low, demand is high and prices keep creeping higher. Please let us know if there is anything real estate-related we can help you with.

 

Happy Holidays and New Year! Thank you so much for your support and referrals during 2021.

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Real Estate Market Update

August 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Your reputation is what people say about you. Your character is what God knows about you.” Bobby Bowden

 

Whether an FSU fan or not, most people respect and love Bobby Bowden.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July have a few interesting twists. Prices continue to rise, pending and closed sales are down compared to July 2020, and new listings are up.

 

New listings of 3,915 are up 6.9% month over month and 5.3% year to date. The inventory of homes for sale of 4,668 is up slightly from the June number of 4,586. It is still down 40.6% from last July. The months supply of inventory is at 1.4 months which is the same as June but down 50% from last July. Since 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is a balanced market, we are still in a seller’s market.

 

There were 3,287 pending sales in July down 10.6% from last July. However, pending sales are up 13.4% year-to-date. There were 3,149 closings in July down 16.2% from last July but we are up 16.7% year-to-date. The month-to-month comparisons are difficult to interpret because last June and July were the two highest months for sales last year and July was the highest month for closings as a result of the slowdown in April and May 2020 due to Covid.

 

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun is predicting interest rates to increase to 3.3% by the end of the year on 30-year fixed rate mortgages and average 3.6% in 2022. He predicts existing-home sales will decline marginally from 6 million in 2021 to 5.99 million in 2022.

 

Dr. Yun also predicts housing starts will improve to 1.65 million in 2022 from 1.565 in 2021 and existing-home prices will increase at a slower pace of 4.4% in 2022 compared to 14.1% in 2021.

 

The July median sales price is $303,600 up 15% month-over-month and 13.7% year-to-date. The average sales price is $381,499 up 18.4% month-over-month and 18.6% year-to-date. An amazing 45.6% of listings sold for an amount over list price.

 

It does appear the speed of the market is slowing a little and there may be more opportunities for first-time homebuyers and buyers using FHA or VA loans. Sellers were seeing so many cash offers and conventional loans, that many didn’t want to accept government backed loans because of their inflexibility. The market calming down a little will be good for everyone.

 

Please take a minute to go to DavidsonCares.com and sign up for Clay Day on October 21st or buy a ticket to one of our raffles. We have our YETI cooler full of alcoholic beverages and tickets for 8 people at Concerts for a Cause which is an amazing event watching live music outside.

 

Have a great Labor Day holiday and enjoy the rest of your summer. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate questions.

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NORTHEAST FLORIDA BUILDERS ARE TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH THE DEMAND FOR NEW HOMES. HERE’S HOW SOME BUILDERS ARE MANAGING THE PROCESS.

June 23, 2021

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Posted by in New Home Construction, News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

Persistence and patience are the name of the game in the current real estate market as every corner of the industry has been rattled by uncertainty as a side effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

 

“The Northeast Florida real estate market is as hot as many in our industry have ever seen,” shares Davidson Realty President, Sherry Davidson. “There are not enough homes on the market to satisfy buyer demand. Resale homes coming available are getting multiple offers usually within hours to a day and offers are mostly above list price. In May of this year, more than 41% of homes closed were over asking price,” Sherry continues. Even the new construction housing market has experienced challenges that are requiring home seekers to adapt. We’ve connected with some of the talented home builders in Northeast Florida to get an update on their current conditions. 

 

Riverside Homes

“Riverside Homes continues to see very strong demand and we have made a few changes to our process to ensure the very best quality homes and provide the great building experience the people expect from Riverside Homes. We limit the amount of sales in each of our communities so we can keep a smooth process for permitting and building our homes. We closely monitor increasing supply costs each month doing our best to offer the most competitive home pricing,” shares Riverside Homes Sales Manager, Jacki Matthews. Despite the building supply shortages plaguing builders across the country, Riverside Homes promises to maintain the integrity and quality of their homes. 

 

Ashley Homes

Ashley Homes experienced a surge in sales and are currently sold out in Silverleaf, and have been since February 2021. “During the pandemic, we had no limits on sales and sold everything that we had available. Ashley Homes includes escalation clauses in many of our contracts, as do other builders, to protect us and our buyers from unforeseen lumber and material increases. Our buyer may pay a modest increase just to cover the rising material costs, but Ashley Homes has no profit added, shares Ashley Homes’ very own Greg Souris. Ashley Homes is navigating the home building process with their buyers, many who have seen more than $40,000-$50,000 increase in their home value before their home construction even started. 

 

Providence Homes

“In E-Town we are not limiting pre-sales or inventory homes, however, some of our policies have changed on when we can release inventory homes for sales. In Nocatee, we are limiting the pace of sales so we can manage the construction process,” shares Brenda Harris, Sales Associate at Providence Homes. Build time is approximately eight months, but Providence Homes is asking for flexibility and understanding from customers as material shortages could cause delays. 

 

MasterCraft Builder Group

Brad Shee, MasterCraft Builder Group President, shared, “The shortage of materials began in March 2021 as suppliers burned through inventory. Based on the lumber futures chart, lumber prices should start dropping. Because of the shortages, MasterCraft Builder Group is limiting sales each month in TrailMark and Rivertown.” The demand for homes in Northeast Florida is unprecedented, but it’s no surprise as the attraction to the First Coast is clear from the ocean to the river to the affordable cost of living. 

 

With more than 30 years of experience, Davidson Realty has cultivated strong relationships with some of the area’s leading home builders in Northeast Florida. Davidson Realty Agents know the new constructions market in Northeast Florida and can help you find the perfect lot and design to fit your needs. “Our agents are constantly talking to builder site agents to stay current on which builders have inventory and how they are managing the sales process. This constant communication allows our agents to know if a sale falls through, what is available, and the timing and process of the homesites that will be released so our clients can take advantage,” shares Sherry Davidson. 

 

The real estate experts at Davidson Realty will be by your side throughout the construction process to ensure your expectations and vision comes to life! For more information on new construction homes in Northeast Florida, call Davidson Realty at (904) 940-5000.

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The Things You Might NOT Know About the Real Estate Market in Northeast Florida

June 3, 2021

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Posted by in Ask Sherry, Neighborhoods, News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

The real estate market is notorious for its ups and downs, however, this real estate market is unique. Inventory is low, demand is high, and homes are FLYING off the market faster than ever! With so much uncertainty in this unprecedented market, it’s more important than ever to have a trusted real estate expert by your side to navigate the market.  Northeast Florida real estate expert Sherry Davidson, President of Davidson Realty, is answering some of the most common real estate questions from the community. 

 

How can I figure out how much my home is worth? 

Your home’s value is whatever the market is willing to pay. The market is changing very rapidly. It is in your best interest as a home seller to have a trusted real estate expert that knows the current market by your side to help you place a value on your home. Our team is selling homes daily and has the knowledge to ensure your home sells for TOP DOLLAR! 

 

Should I sell my home before buying a new one? 

The answer to this question has always been, YES! However, in the current real estate market conditions, the answer depends on your situation. If you sell, you need to have a rental home lined up or have the ability to live with family until you find your next home. If you put a new home under contract, you will probably not get a contingency to sell your existing home. You will risk losing your escrow deposit if you can’t close or you will have to acquire a bridge loan, extra savings, or a gift to close on the new home before you have the closing on your existing home.

 

Is World Golf Village expanding? 

With a few small exceptions, the only portion of World Golf Village not built out is Trailmark. There are new phases of homesites still becoming available in Trailmark.

 

What is the next go-to area to move to in Northeast Florida? 

There are so many incredible communities in Northeast Florida. However, Silverleaf is extremely popular right now. Silverleaf is located in highly desired St. Johns County, Florida, and just minutes from various shopping centers, beaches, golf courses, and entertainment.   The community will also be home to a first-class amenities center for residents to enjoy! 

 

If you are interested in buying or selling a home or have further questions about the market, contact Davidson Realty at (904) 940-5000.

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Real Estate Market Update

May 20, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.” Babe Ruth

 

If you want to buy a home in today’s market, you should listen to Babe Ruth. Most buyers are having to be persistent and make offers on several homes before they get a home under contract.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for April continue to show high demand for homes and limited supply which is causing price increases.

 

There were 3,615 pending sales in April which is up 52% over last April; however last April COVID was a factor in less contracts being written. The year-to-date numbers for pending sales are up 27% so you can see there is increased demand in the four-month period.

 

There were 3,177 closed sales in April which is a 27% increase month-over-month and 20% year-to-date.

 

The median sales price is $284,941 which is up 14% over last month and 12.5% year-to-date. The average sales price is $357,438 which is up 20.5% over last month and 18% year-to-date.

 

The most staggering statistic to me was the percent of properties sold over list price. For the properties that closed in April, 36.9% sold over list price. That is a 142.8% increase over April 2020. The average for the previous 12 months was 13.3% selling over list price.

 

On the supply side, there were 3,991 available homes for sale at the end of April which is down 58% from last April and there are 1.2 months supply of homes for sale. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months.

 

There may be better news coming to help with supply. A survey by Realtor.com indicated more sellers plan to put their homes on the market. Another survey by NerdWallet of 2,127 homeowners shows 1 in 6 (17%) plans on selling their home in the next 18 months. In fact, 45% of those planning to sell say higher asking prices and lower inventory have caused them to sell earlier than initially planned.

 

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate to an average of 3.2% in 2021. “As mortgage rates increase, the frenzied multiple-offer situation will become less prevalent by year’s end, as affordability challenges squeeze out some buyers and more inventory reaches the market,” Yun predicts.

 

“With more inventory and some easing in demand, home prices are expected to shift to mid-single-digit appreciation by the fourth quarter and in 2022,” Yun says. He predicts that:

· Median existing-home sales price will increase 7% in 2021

· Existing-home sales will grow by 10% as more homes reach the market

· New home sales will increase by 20%

 

These predictions are great news. In the meantime, if you are interested in buying or selling, please contact a Realtor with knowledge of the market. We would love to help you navigate these interesting times.

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