I attended a great event hosted by NEFBA this week featuring Robert Dietz, the National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist. He shared some very positive information about the Jacksonville MSA (metropolitan statistical area) performing better than the state and nation in many areas. For instance, the population growth for 2018 in the U.S. was 0.6%, the state of Florida was 1.5% and the Jacksonville MSA was 2.0%.

Robert Dietz also shared that the Builder confidence index rose to 68 in September from an upwardly revised reading of 67 in August. A reading above 50 is considered positive.

Another interesting slide he shared shows the number of young adults between the ages of 25 to 34 living with their parents almost doubled since 2005. Approximately 12% were living with their parents in 2005 and around 22% are living with parents now. Many young adults in this age group have student loans and auto loans which make it difficult to afford housing payments. Student loans are 142% higher since the recession and auto loans are 60% higher. Housing formations for this group are being delayed.

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All is well in Northeast Florida real estate this summer in the most recent report from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. The pending sales and closed sales are up, the median and average sales price are up, and the inventory of homes for sale and months supply of homes for sale are down.

There were 2,983 contracts written in July which is up 6% over last July and 6% year-to-date. The local data continues to be positive and in June the national numbers were also positive. A National Association of Realtors article says, “The Pending Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings – moved up 2.8% to 108.3 in June, an increase from 105.4 in May. Year-over-year contract signings jumped 1.6%, snapping a 17-month streak of annual decreases. The 2.8% increase is likely the start of a positive trend for home sales, predicts NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.”

• The closed sales in July of 2,820 were up 1% over last July and 4% year-to-date.
• The median sales price of $242,000 is up 5% over last July and 2% year-to-date.
• The average sales price of $283,038 is up 3% over last July and 2% year-to-date.
• The inventory of homes for sale is down 7% from last July to 9,173.
• The months supply of inventory is down 12.5% from last July to 3.5 months.
  Five to six months of supply is a balanced market.

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