Davidson Realty, Inc.

Real Estate Market Update

August 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Your reputation is what people say about you. Your character is what God knows about you.” Bobby Bowden

 

Whether an FSU fan or not, most people respect and love Bobby Bowden.

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for July have a few interesting twists. Prices continue to rise, pending and closed sales are down compared to July 2020, and new listings are up.

 

New listings of 3,915 are up 6.9% month over month and 5.3% year to date. The inventory of homes for sale of 4,668 is up slightly from the June number of 4,586. It is still down 40.6% from last July. The months supply of inventory is at 1.4 months which is the same as June but down 50% from last July. Since 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is a balanced market, we are still in a seller’s market.

 

There were 3,287 pending sales in July down 10.6% from last July. However, pending sales are up 13.4% year-to-date. There were 3,149 closings in July down 16.2% from last July but we are up 16.7% year-to-date. The month-to-month comparisons are difficult to interpret because last June and July were the two highest months for sales last year and July was the highest month for closings as a result of the slowdown in April and May 2020 due to Covid.

 

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun is predicting interest rates to increase to 3.3% by the end of the year on 30-year fixed rate mortgages and average 3.6% in 2022. He predicts existing-home sales will decline marginally from 6 million in 2021 to 5.99 million in 2022.

 

Dr. Yun also predicts housing starts will improve to 1.65 million in 2022 from 1.565 in 2021 and existing-home prices will increase at a slower pace of 4.4% in 2022 compared to 14.1% in 2021.

 

The July median sales price is $303,600 up 15% month-over-month and 13.7% year-to-date. The average sales price is $381,499 up 18.4% month-over-month and 18.6% year-to-date. An amazing 45.6% of listings sold for an amount over list price.

 

It does appear the speed of the market is slowing a little and there may be more opportunities for first-time homebuyers and buyers using FHA or VA loans. Sellers were seeing so many cash offers and conventional loans, that many didn’t want to accept government backed loans because of their inflexibility. The market calming down a little will be good for everyone.

 

Please take a minute to go to DavidsonCares.com and sign up for Clay Day on October 21st or buy a ticket to one of our raffles. We have our YETI cooler full of alcoholic beverages and tickets for 8 people at Concerts for a Cause which is an amazing event watching live music outside.

 

Have a great Labor Day holiday and enjoy the rest of your summer. Please let us know if we can help you with any real estate questions.

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REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

April 23, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“God could not be everywhere, and therefore he made mothers.” Rudyard Kipling

 

I wish every mother a Happy Mother’s Day!

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for March shows 3,782 homes available for sale compared to 9,484 last March, a 60% reduction. It appears the low supply of homes for sale, high buyer demand and rising prices will be with us for several years.

 

The single-family home for sale inventory peaked in 2007 with about 3.7 million homes available nationally and has been dropping since then to 1.07 million homes currently.

 

A great article from The Mecklenburg Times cites the reason for continued buyer demand as low household formation rates following the Great Recession. If the historical household formation rate had continued after the recession, there would have been 5.7 million more households formed.

 

“The mid-2000s financial collapse began a domino effect. Roughly $6 trillion in real estate equity vanished during the housing crash, impacting the ability of many families to pass down wealth to their children. Young people who finished school around the late 2000s faced a soft job market, which can have long-lasting effects on a person’s finances and their ability to start a new household. Previous Zillow research has shown it takes about six years for homeownership rates of those who graduated college during a recession to catch up with those who graduated during better economic times.”

 

The last two years had shown that when the economy is good and most Americans have access to decent jobs, more of them are able to find a home of their own. More Millennials are turning 33 which has been the age most are marrying and starting families. This trend should continue rising for the next three to four years. Add to this the retiring Baby Boomers who are downsizing and the COVID-related moves where people can work from anywhere. The demand should continue for several more years at least.

 

The supply is tight and the demand is strong, so prices are rising. The median sales price is $274,900 up 12.7% over last March. The average sales price is $344,643, up 20.4%. Many buyers are offering to pay more than list price to get the offer accepted among multiple offers. The percent of properties sold over list price spiked 102.1%. In March 2020 14.2% of properties sold over list price and in March 2021 28.7% paid over list price.

 

It is a seller’s market, so if you are considering selling, we are happy to assist you. If you are interested in buying, we are finding ways to get offers accepted. Thank you for your continued trust and please let us know if we can help in any way. Happy Mother’s Day!

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Real Estate Market Update

March 19, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Four things for success: work and pray, think and believe.” Norman Vincent Peale

 

As we roll into the spring real estate market, there is more demand and less supply of homes than I have ever seen including the 2004 to 2006 timeframe. The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats tell the story.

 

The pending sales of 3,063 are 11.4% higher than last February. The closed sales of 2,542 are up 5.9%. The new listings for February of 2,955 are down 13.5%.

 

There are 3,931 homes available for sale in February, down 56.1% from the 8,945 homes last February. The months supply of inventory is 1.3 months, down 60.6% from 3.3 months last February.

 

With the increased demand and diminishing supply, the prices continue to rise. The average sales price is up 14.1% in February compared to last February and the median price is up 11.8%. A recent article in the Jacksonville Business Journal says Redfin reports that Jacksonville leads the nation in rising housing market value. “The study from Seattle-based online real estate brokerage Redfin Corp. pointed to a 21.1% increase in the total value of homes in the Jacksonville metro between February 2020 and February 2021 – the largest increase in the nation.” They also pointed out that houses in our area remain below the national median price. “The median price here of $270,477 compared to $342,326 for the entire country.”

 

Florida Realtors Chief Economist, Dr. Brad O’Connor is predicting all of 2021 to be a great real estate market in Florida. He quoted economist from Realtors, Builders, Mortgage Bankers, Core Logic and more all predicting interest rates at year end between 3% and 3.6%. He says if rates rise too quickly the demand would be strong but we might be closer to historical norms than the market we are seeing now.

 

We are seeing fewer new listings as mentioned above. This may be related to COVID fears or concerns of where you can buy if you sell your home at a great price. The builders are adding homes as quickly as possible. The building permits issued for the Jacksonville MSA for January and February 2021 were 2,393 compared to 1,723 for the same period in 2020 for a 39% increase.

 

If you are buying or selling, you need advice from a trusted agent. The professional agents are finding ways to get offers accepted for buyers and know the best way to handle multiple offers for sellers. Please let us know if we can be of service.

 

Enjoy our beautiful spring weather, March Madness, Baseball Spring Training, our beaches and river. I wish you a Happy Easter!

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Real Estate Market Update

February 16, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Talent is God given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful.” John Wooden

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for January 2021 confirms what we are seeing in the market every day. The Inventory of Homes for Sale is 4,296 homes, down 51.6% from last January when there were 8,876. We have 1.4 months supply of inventory which is down 57.6% from 3.3 months last January. These numbers are staggering. The available inventory is lower than in the crazy period of 2004 and 2005.

 

It is the perfect storm if you are considering selling your home. When a new listing comes available buyers are offering list price with escalation clauses to pay more. Some buyers are removing appraisal and inspection contingencies to get their offer accepted. It is a very competitive market and you need expert advice to manage the process.

 

Buyer demand is strong as evidenced by 2,970 pending sales in January up 17.9% from last January. Closed sales of 2,210 is up 11.2%. With strong buyer demand and lower than normal inventory, prices continue to increase. The median sales price in January is $256,995 up 10.8% over last January. The average price is $319,811 up 16.0%.

 

National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Chief Economist, Dr. Robert Dietz and Florida Realtors Chief Economist, Dr. Brad O’Connor spoke at a recent Florida Realtors event and shared some interesting insights. Dr. Dietz said Florida had strong growth in new construction with 2020 building permits up “an incredible 30% year-over-year.”

 

The NAHB chief economist said he tracked data to look at the often-cited “shift to the suburbs” for housing in the latter part of 2020 due to COVID-19. He found that large metro areas with high density in the urban core still experienced a year-over-year growth rate of about 5.7% in 3Q 2020, but the lower-density, lower-cost suburbs out from the cities reported a growth rate of about 15%. Dietz also looked further out from Florida’s urban cores at communities known for second homes, investment homes or retirement. He said those areas reported a year-over-year growth rate of about 23.2% in 3Q 2020.

 

Dr. O’Connor explained that buyer wealth and available inventory matter more than density. “So, I would hypothesize that’s why you’re seeing a suburban shift in new home sales. And, why you’re seeing an overall greater surge in sales of upper-priced and luxury homes in Florida is that these kinds of homes are more freely available, and because many of the folks who are able to afford these kinds of properties also tend to be those who will be most able to work from home going forward.”

 

The northeast Florida housing market remains strong. It will be interesting to see what happens in the spring which is typically our strongest season. Enjoy the great spring weather and all the sports that are resuming. Thank you for your continued support and please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs

 

 

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October’s Real Estate Trends – Jacksonville Ranked #9 Nationally in all Cash Sales

November 26, 2014

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

Be thankful for what you have; you’ll end up having more. If you concentrate on what you don’t have, you will never, ever have enough. –Oprah Winfrey

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for October make me thankful for the positive trends we continue to see. The pending sales in October of 2,193 are 22% higher than the previous October. We have 11% more pending sales year to date than the same period in 2013.

There were 1,906 closings in October which are 4% more than the previous October and year to date we are up 7%. You have to keep in perspective that 2013 was drastically better than 2012 and we continue to have better numbers in 2014 than 2013. Read more

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