“The measure of intelligence is the ability to change” -Albert Einstein

Those of us in the real estate industry must be very intelligent since our market keeps changing continuously. We have gone from calming buyers who lost out on many homes in multiple offer situations to educating sellers that it will take longer to sell their home and it must be priced properly within a matter of weeks.

There are positives to the changes we are seeing. Buyers have more choices of homes and can negotiate with the sellers. The sellers are seeing a less hectic sales process.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market review for July shows prices are stabilizing, pending and closed sales have dropped, and inventory is increasing.

The median sales price for all property types in all local counties is $368,000 which did not change from June. The price is up 20.7% from last July.

Nationally, the median sales price of $403,800 for July was 10.8% higher than the previous year. Earlier in 2022, prices were climbing around 20% annually, and before the pandemic prices were rising about 5% annually.

There were 2,419 closed sales in July, down 27.4% from last year and 23.3% from June when there were 3,154 closings. There were 2,379 pending sales in July down 32.0% from last year and 12.1% from June when there were 2,707 contracts written.

In my opinion, higher housing prices, rapid increase in mortgage rates, stock market adjustment, and the national media scaring everyone with headlines of a housing crash kept most homebuyers on the sidelines. This week our company has seen more contracts written than we have seen in the last few weeks. Not quite sure what to expect next, but it seems like some buyers are coming back into the market.

The active inventory is at 6,312 homes which is up 23.1% from last year and 5.9% from June. The months supply of inventory is at 2.6 months which is up 69.7% from last year and 38.1% from June. A 5 to 6 months supply of inventory is considered a balanced market.

Change is hard, but a more balanced market is good for everyone. Please let us know if we can help you in any way with your real estate needs.

Our Davidson Cares Clay Day is October 20th this year. Please go to DavidsonCares.com to sign up to shoot or buy a raffle ticket supporting several awesome local charities.

“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” — Maya Angelou

Every headline seems to be negative about the economy and the housing market. If we can’t change the situation, we need to change our attitude about it.

This morning we saw that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.1% from a year earlier. Housing has the largest impact of any input on the CPI at roughly 40%. The Federal Reserve is very focused on bringing down inflation. As such, they are determined to bring down housing prices by raising interest rates.

The June market review from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors does show signs of the market slowing. Closed and pending sales are down this month and inventory has increased. However, the median sales price for all property types in Northeast Florida of $369,229 continues to rise. It is up 23.1% over last year and 2.6% over May.

Experts are not expecting prices to decline but rather that they may increase at a more moderate rate. Forecasts from seven major industry groups were predicting an average of 8% increase in prices for 2022.

The median days on the market increased from 13 days to 19 days. This is still very low compared to historical data.

The closed sales of 2,968 is down 18.8% from last year and 3.1% from May when there were 3,062 closed sales. Pending sales of 2,748 are down 19.4% from last year and 11.6% from May’s 3,109.

The active inventory is 5,508 homes up 15.2% from last year and 20.6% from May’s 4,566. This equates to 1.9 months supply of homes up 24.5% from 1.5 months in May.

This is good news for buyers as they have more homes to choose from and not as many competing offers. Sellers may see their home stay on the market a little longer and not have as many offers, but there is still strong demand and low inventory.

If you have a change in your circumstances and need to buy or sell, don’t let all the negative headlines keep you from making the correct life decisions. Enjoy your summer and please let us know if we can assist you in any way.

“My father gave me the greatest gift anyone could give another person, he believed in me.” Jim Valvano

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market stats for May are not showing many changes in the local real estate market, but I believe we will see a moderation in the market in future reports.

The median sales price for all property types in all 6 counties is $360,000 which is up 24.6% over last year and 2.9% over April. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said recently “Home prices are still hitting new highs, but the pace of appreciation is not likely to continue. It’s just inevitable that home price appreciation will slow down in upcoming months.”

We are seeing sellers reduce prices if they are starting out with unrealistic pricing. Fewer buyers are offering extra incentives such as waiving appraisal contingencies and seller closings costs. I agree that we will see slower price appreciation in the coming months.

There were 41.3 % of the closings over list price. This is up 13.2% from last year and up slightly from 41.2% last month. This percentage should also come down in the future.

There were 4,002 new listings in May up 4.4% from last year and 7.1% from April. The active inventory of homes available were 4,233 which is still down 4.4% from last year but up 11.2% from last month. The months supply of inventory moved from 1.3 months in April up to 1.4 months.

I continue to see headlines of the number of resales and new homes dropping; however, it is hard for me to really understand clearly because inventory is so constrained. It is difficult to know if there would be more sales if there were more homes available.

There were 2,936 closed sales in May which is down 14.8% from last year and up 0.4% from April. There were 3,097 pending sales which is down 14.3% from last year and up 1.4% from April.

To summarize, while the supply of homes available and the days on market are still very low and home prices continuing to increase; the market is showing signs of change with higher interest rates and the stock market moving into bear market territory. In my opinion, It is very hard to predict the amount of change we will see since we are still in such a low inventory situation.

Happy Independence Day! Have a wonderful summer and please let us know if we can help you with any real estate needs.

“You will never see the end, if you give up in the middle.” – Joyce Meyer

I can’t wait to see where our housing market is going next.

In a recent Business Journal article “Observers and economists are cautiously optimistic that more inventory will hit the market in the coming months, which, combined with potentially fewer buyers because of rising mortgage rates and home prices, should help moderate the market.” We will be watching metrics like active inventory and days on market to see if we see this moderation.

Right now, the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats doesn’t show the moderation in our market. The median sales price of $350,000 is up 22.9% from last April and 2.7% from the previous month. There were 41.3% of the closings over list price up from 39.5% the previous month. Our buyer demand is still very strong.

The median days on the market is 13 days down from 14 days the previous two months. The properties are still selling very quickly.

The active inventory is 3,432 homes which is 24.3% less than last April. There was a slight increase (3.7%) from the previous month. The months supply of inventory is 1.2 months which is down 9.6% from last April but up from 1.0 months in March. We will have to see whether the slight increase in inventory is a change in the market or sellers just pricing their homes over market price causing them to sit on the market a little longer.

There are many issues that could affect the real estate market. The rapid rise in mortgage interest rates, inflation, and the continuing supply chain issues could be three of the biggest. Housing prices and wage increases due to the shortage of workers seem to be major factors causing inflation.

A recent USA Today article made an interesting point about older workers comprising the largest group of Americans that stopped working during COVID. Many retired early but with the runaway inflation, financial pressures, and an abating pandemic many of them are returning to the labor force. Pew Research believes 1.5 million of the 3.5 million baby boomers who retired during the pandemic did so sooner than intended. The Fed puts the figure at 2.4 million. These workers may help some with the worker shortages.

I will continue to watch for changes in our market but if you are considering selling, it is a very good time to get your home on the market.

Enjoy all the great spring activities and the sports going on this time of year. If we can assist you in any way with real estate advice, please let us know.