Davidson Realty, Inc.

Jacksonville FL Real Estate Statistics in April 2011

May 31, 2011

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Genius is the ability to reduce the complicated to the simple.”C. W. Ceram

The most successful people I know are able to simplify complicated issues. When I reviewed the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics this month I struggled with how to simplify what seemed like some very conflicting information.  As with many issues dealt with in today’s business environment, the analytical complexity was a result of yet another “helpful” government program. Any statistical analysis comparing April, 2010 vs April, 2011 must factor in the 2009 homebuyer tax credit program. As you may recall, homebuyers were initially required to be under a contract by November 30, 2009 which was then extended to April 30, 2010. As a result, 2010 results were directly impacted by this program.

First let’s look at activity. Pending sales and closings for April look very good compared to recent months; however, when you compare them to April, 2010 pending sales are down 13.2% and closings are down 8.8%. To give a little perspective, closings are up 2% year to date over 2010.

In April, 51.1% of closings were distressed properties. That number is down from the previous three months when the percentage was closer to 60%.

Now we will look at pricing. The median sales price for April is down 8.1% when compared to last April; however the average sales price is up 1.7%. Due to the 2009 homebuyer tax credit program many of the closings last April were first time homebuyers. This year we are seeing more mid and higher priced properties selling. We will not see any strong improvement in prices until the distressed properties situation improves. Read more

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Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends – March 2011

April 28, 2011

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“It’s not so important who starts the game but who finishes it. ”  John Wooden

This is one of my favorite quotes from the great coach John Wooden. It seems appropriate now because this economy has taken down a lot of good businesses. Many people still in the real estate business have commented to me that there is no way they would give up now after all they have been through. This spirit and determination is what makes this nation and this industry great.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market statistics for March continue to show good activity and lower prices. Pending sales of 1,909 homes for March, 2011 were up 3.9% over March, 2010; however, the current trend is more dramatic. The last 6 months of pending sales average 1,278 per month compared to 1,909 in March 2011. We have experienced this dramatic increase in our office and our April numbers may be close to March.

The closed sales for March, 2011 are down from March, 2010 by 7.1% but that doesn’t tell an accurate story. The March, 2010 number of 1,548 was substantially higher than all the previous months in 2010 and 2009 due to the federal tax credits. The March, 2011 number of closed sales of 1,438 was a higher number of closings than every month since June, 2010 except for 1 month. Overall we are showing an improvement in closings. I believe this is primarily a result of more confident buyers.

The average and median price declines continue and are directly tied to the continued increase, on a month-to-month bases, of lender-mediated sales. Traditional sales are down as a percentage on a month-to-month comparison and will remain that way in the future until we work our way out of the high volume of distressed property currently available. The good news is the median sales price of traditional sales was up 8.7% over March, 2010 while the median sales price of lender–mediated sales was down 13.2%. Total median sales price is down 10.9% compared to March, 2010 with a slight upward trend over February. In March, 57.4% of all closings were lender-mediated. Read more

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Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends in January 2011

February 23, 2011

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

 “The path to our destination is not always a straight one. We go down
 the wrong road, we get lost, we turn back. Maybe it doesn’t matter
 which road we embark on. Maybe what matters is that we embark.”
        — Barbara Hall

We have embarked on a new year and January is already proving correct many predictions of ups and downs in the real estate market during 2011. See the table below for the latest Northeast Florida Association of Realtors statistics.

 

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011
Pending Sales

942

1,148

1,396
Closed Sales

701

921

993
Days on Market Until Sale

109

102

120
Median Sales Price

$155,000

$132,700

$120,750
Average Sales Price

$201,832

$164,825

$153,361
% of Original List Price Received

86.3%

88.6%

86.1%
Inventory of Homes for Sale

16,690

15,443

13,198
Months Supply of Inventory

15.9

12.3

9.4

As you can see, pending sales, closed sales, Inventory of homes for sale and months supply of inventory are all showing positive trends. There are more sales each year and less inventory.

The median and average sales prices are declining. One major reason for this decline is that a staggering 59% of all closings in January were short sales or foreclosures.

If you take a 12-month average of the average sales price for the most current year, you will see it comes to $169,465 which when compared to the previous year of $179,057 shows a 5.4% decline in pricing. This method helps to smooth out the bumps in pricing each month.

If you know of anyone that would like to buy, sell, or rent a home, please give me a call. I would love to take great care of any of your referrals.

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Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends in October 2010

November 30, 2010

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Every problem has in it the seeds of its own solution. If you don’t have any problems, you don’t get any seeds.” Norman Vincent Peale

This quote should give you a hint about the northeast Florida market for October. The numbers aren’t a surprise since many lenders halted foreclosure sales in October and 54.8% of the North Florida closings in September were lender mediated meaning a short sale or foreclosure. Only 48.7% of the closings in October were lender mediated.

• The number of closings in October reported by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) was 968 down from 1,263 in September.

I believe the foreclosure issues accounted for most of the drop in closings. On a positive note, the closings year to date through October 2010 are 13,393 up from 11,817 year to date through October 2009 and 10,686 year to date through October 2008.

• The number of pending sales in October were 1,280, which was down from 1,385 in September and 1,496 in August. Pending sales year to date through October 2010 like closings are up over 2008 and 2009.
• The median sales price and the average sales price are both higher than previous months. Again, I think this may be due to less foreclosure sales. The median sales price is $142,550 for October. It was only $130,000 for September which is a nice increase. The average sales price is $173,892 in October which is up from $166,504 in September. Read more

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Jacksonville, Florida Real Estate Trends in August 2010

September 29, 2010

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

So, last month my marketing team was picking on me about being bitter and a “negative Nancy” when I wrote my market statistics. And, I tell them you try to make the worst month in real estate (as proclaimed by the media) sound good! With that being said, I must admit I would have needed a lot of champagne to put a positive spin on the numbers for August, too. I really am an optimistic person and I do truly believe this market will turn, but I can’t find a positive way to tell you that 51.4% of all closings in the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) market area for August 2010 are lender mediated sales which is a foreclosure or a short sale. However, I can share some more information, some good and some bad, about Jacksonville FL real estate in August.

“Real optimism is aware of problems but recognizes solutions; knows about difficulties but believes they can be overcome; sees the negatives, but accentuates the positives; is exposed to the worst but expects the best; has reason to complain, but chooses to smile.” William Arthur Ward

We all need to read this quote a couple times a day!

Pending sales are 16.6% higher in August 2010 than in August 2009. The current trend is also positive. June 2010 pending sales were 1,455, July was 1,560 and August is 1,632.  Read more

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