Davidson Realty, Inc.

Real Estate Market Update

January 21, 2021

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Have enough courage to start and enough heart to finish.” – Jessica N. S. Yourko

 


This quote seems like a wonderful way to begin a new year that looks to be a wild ride. All predictions are for continued strong demand for homes in the northeast Florida area and nationwide.

 

I have huge respect for Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist. At a recent event co-presented by RISMedia and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Dr. Yun indicated that the momentum from the second half of 2020 will continue into 2021. His predictions for the new year are interest rates at historic low levels, increased job creation due to the stimulus package recently passing and vaccines being widely distributed, improved unemployment rate, and more housing inventory.

 

He also expects the following:

– Strong home sales momentum, with sales up roughly 8 to 12 percent in 2021 vs. 2020

– Home prices rising more moderately, about 4 percent nationwide

 

The demand for homes in our area remains strong, but the supply of homes continues to decrease. There were 4,549 homes available for sale in December 2020 down 46.9% from the 8,569 available in December 2019 according to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats.

 

There is 1.5 months supply of homes for sale in our area down 53.1% from last December’s 3.2 months of supply. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of supply. If you are buying or selling a home, you need guidance from a professional. We are seeing crazy things happening in this market on both sides of the transaction.

 

– Pending sales of 2,685 were up 25.7% December over December and up 12.9% year over year.

– Closed sales of 3,187 were up 15.2% December over December and up 8.2% year over year.

– Median sales price of $267,000 is up 11.3% December over December and 9.0% year over year.

– Average sales price of $331,242 is up 14.6% December over December and 11.8% year over year.

 

New home construction has increased and will help with the supply of homes, but builders are facing challenges also. From a blog posted today on the National Association of Homebuilders site, “Rising material costs led by a huge upsurge in lumber prices, along with a resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the nation, pushed builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes down three points to 83 in January, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite the drop, builder sentiment remains at a strong level.” Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

 

Thank you for all the support of Davidson Realty and Davidson Property Management. If we can assist you with any of your real estate needs, please let us know.

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Real Estate Market Update

December 23, 2020

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“God has given us two hands – one to receive with and the other to give with. We are not cisterns made for hoarding; we are channels made for sharing.” Billy Graham

 

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats continue to show more buyer demand than seller supply. Pending sales were below normal in March, April, and May due to COVID-19; however, the year to date pending sales are up 11.6% over the same period last year. The 2,858 pending sales in November is 21.3% higher than last November.

 

The 2,680 closings in November are 13% higher than last November. We are up 6.7% year-to-date over the same period last year.

 

The homes available for sale is the lowest number on any reports I have seen. There are 5,211 homes available in Northeast Florida down 44.7% from 9,418 in November 2019 and 9,976 in November 2018.

 

There is 1.7 months supply of homes for sale which is down 51.4% from last year. A balanced market is 5 to 6 months of inventory.

 

The Northeast Florida builders are building more homes than in any year since 2005. There have been 11,343 permits issued in the Jacksonville MSA through November. That is 18% higher than 2019 in the same period. There were 10,345 permits in all 12 months of 2019.

 

The low supply and increased demand is causing prices to continue to rise. The median sales price of $262,000 is 12.9% higher than last November and we are up 8.8% year-to-date. The average sales price of $317,602 is 17.2% higher than last November and we are up 11.5% year-to-date.

 

Realtor.com has issued the first predictions for 2021. They are predicting a 7% growth in sales nationally and a 5.7% price increase. The 2021 prediction for the Jacksonville area is 9.4% growth in sales and 5.0% increase in prices.

 

Realtor.com is predicting more homes will hit the market in 2021, but buyers will struggle with affordability as home prices continue to rise. Mortgage rates will slowly rise toward 3.4%.

 

· Millennials will continue to drive the market. Older millennials will likely be trade-up buyers while the younger segment of the generation age into their key home-buying years.

· Affordability will become a growing obstacle.

· Inventory will begin the slow road toward recovery.

· Suburbs will shine if remote work stays around.

 

I wish you a wonderful holiday season and an amazing 2021. This year was full of ups and downs with COVID and the election. I wish you a wonderful and safe New Year!

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Jacksonville FL Real Estate Trends in August – This Month’s Pending Sales up over 21% From August 2013

September 23, 2014

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Posted by in News, Northeast Florida Market Trends

“It’s not the will to win that matters—everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters.” Paul “Bear” Bryant

With football season underway, it is nice to start with a quote from a true legend. I will not discuss football or baseball since the teams I love all seem to lack the additional preparation to win.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors market stats for August continue to show the positive trends that we have been seeing since March of this year. The most impressive to me is pending sales. There were 21% more contracts written in August 2014 (2,305) than in August 2013 (1,901). There have been 17,061 contracts written year to date for an 11% increase over 15,429 last year. Read more

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Northeast Florida Market Statistics for September! Is Increased Home Pricing in Our Future?

October 24, 2011

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Posted by in Northeast Florida Market Trends

“Capital isn’t scarce; vision is.” Sam Walton

This is a profound statement by Sam Walton and very appropriate today. There are a lot of bright people focused on making it through the day instead of looking forward.

The one consistent story in the market statistics produced by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors for September is the inventory of homes for sale continues to drop. There were 16,280 active properties for sale in September 2010 and there are 32% less properties (11,011) in September 2011.The inventory has dropped every month in the past year. The months supply of inventory is at 7.7 months supply compared to 11.6 months in September 2010, a 34% decrease. The inventory reductions we are seeing should lead to increased pricing in the future.

Pending sales in September 2011 are up 24% over September 2010. The year to date pending sales for  2011 are up 7% over year to date 2010. The North Florida market has averaged 1,450 pending sales a month for the last 12 months compared to a 1,385 average for the previous 12 months. Read more

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